Modeling The Fate of Sumatran Elephants in Bukit Tigapuluh Indonesia: Research Needs & Implications for Population Management

https://doi.org/10.22146/jik.12622

Alexander Markus Moßbrucker(1*), Muhammad Ali Imron(2), Satyawan Pudyatmoko(3), Peter-Hinrich Pratje(4), Sumardi Sumardi(5)

(1) Sumatran Elephant Conservation Initiative (SECI), Sonnenhalde 7, 78345 Moos
(2) Faculty of Forestry, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Jl. Agro No. 1 Bulaksumur, Sleman 55281
(3) Faculty of Forestry, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Jl. Agro No. 1 Bulaksumur, Sleman 55281
(4) Frankfurt Zoological Society (FZS), Jl. A Chatib No. 60, Telanaipura, Jambi 36124
(5) Faculty of Forestry, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Jl. Agro No. 1 Bulaksumur, Sleman 55281
(*) Corresponding Author

Abstract


The critically endangered Sumatran elephant persists in mainly small and isolated populations that may require intensive management to be viable in the long term. Population Viability Analysis (PVA) provides the opportunity to evaluate conservation strategies and objectives prior to implementation, which can be very valuable for site managers by supporting their decision making process. This study applies PVA to a local population of Sumatran elephants roaming the Bukit Tigapuluh landscape, Sumatra, with the main goal to explore the impact of pre-selected conservation measures and population scenarios on both population growth rate and extinction probability. Sensitivity testing revealed considerable parameter uncertainties that should be addressed by targeted research projects in order to improve the predictive power of the baseline population model. Given that further habitat destruction can be prevented, containing illegal killings appears to be of highest priority among the tested conservation measures and represents a mandatory pre-condition for activities addressing inbreeding depression such as elephant translocation or the establishment of a conservation corridor.

Keywords: Elephas maximus sumatranus; population viability analysis (PVA); Asian elephant; elephant conservation; Vortex

 

Pemodelan Kelestarian dari Gajah Sumatera di Bukit Tigapuluh Indonesia: Kebutuhan Penelitian dan Implikasi untuk Manajemen Populasi

Abstract

Gajah Sumatera yang berstatus kritis sebagian besar bertahan dalam populasi kecil dan terisolasi membutuhkan pengelolaan intensif agar dapat tetap lestari dalam jangka panjang. Analisis Viabilitas Populasi (Population Viability Analysis, PVA) berpeluang untuk digunakan sebagai sarana evaluasi atas tujuan dan strategi konservasi yang disusun sebelum implementasi, yang akan sangat bermanfaat bagi pengelola kawasan guna mendukung pengambilan keputusan. Studi ini menggunakan PVA pada populasi lokal gajah Sumatera yang menjelajahi lanskap Bukit Tigapuluh, Sumatera, dengan tujuan utama mengeksplorasi dampak atas skenario upaya konservasi dan populasi terpilih terhadap laju pertumbuhan populasi dan probabilitas kepunahan. Uji sensitivitas menunjukkan adanya ketidakpastian atas sejumlah parameter pokok yang seharusnya diteliti untuk meningkatkan kekuatan prediksi atas baseline model populasi. Mengingat kerusakan habitat yang lebih parah dapat dicegah, untuk itu upaya penangkalan pembunuhan ilegal merupakan prioritas tertinggi di antara upaya-upaya konservasi yang sudah diuji dan menjadi prasyarat wajib untuk menjawab masalah kemungkinan dampak perkawinan sedarah (inbreeding depression) seperti translokasi gajah atau membangun koridor konservasi. 


Keywords


Elephas maximus sumatranus; analisis viabilitas populasi (PVA); gajah Asia; konservasi gajah; Vortex

Full Text:

PDF


References

  1. Akcakaya HR & Sjögren-Gulve P. 2000. Population viability analyses in conservation planning?: an overview. Ecological Bulletins 48, 9-21.
  2. Armbruster P, Fernando P, & Lande R. 1999. Time frames for population viability analysis of species with long generations: an example with Asian elephants. Animal Conservation 2, 69-73.
  3. Armbruster P & Lande R. 1993. A population viability analysis for African Elephant (Loxodonta africana): How big should reserves be? Conservation Biology 7, 602-610.
  4. Beissinger SR & McCullough DR (Eds). 2002. Population Viability Analysis. First edition. University of Chicago Press, Chicago. 593.
  5. Bennett AF. 2003. Linkages in the Landscape: The Role of Corridors and Connectivity in Wildlife Conservation. IUCN Publications Services Unit, UK, Gland, Switzerland, and Cambrige, UK. 255.
  6. Blouch RA & Haryanto. 1984. Elephants in Southern Sumatra. Unpublished Report. IUCN/WWF Project 3033. Bogor.
  7. Blouch RA & Simbolon K. 1985. Elephants in Northern Sumatra. Unpubplished Report. IUCN/WWF Project 3033. Bogor.
  8. Brook BW, O’Grady JJ, Chapman AP, Burgman MA, Akçakaya HR, & Frankham R. 2000. Predictive accuracy of population viability analysis in conservation biology. Nature 404, 385-387.
  9. Brown JL. 2006. Reproductive endocrinology. In: Biology, Medicine, and Surgery of Elephants. First edition. Fowler ME & Mikota SK (Eds). Blackwell Publishing, Oxford. 377-389.
  10. Dublin HT & Niskanen LS. Eds. 2003. The African Elephant Specialist Group in Cooperation with the Re-introduction and Veterinary Specialist Groups 2003. IUCN/SSC AfESG Guidelines for the in situ Translocation of the African Elephant for Conservaiton Purposes. First edition. IUCN, Gland, Switzerland, and Cambridge, UK. 55.
  11. Fernando P, Leimgruber P, Prasad T, & Pastorini J. 2012. Problem-elephant translocation: translocating the problem and the elephant? PloS one 7.
  12. Fleischer RC, Perry EA, Muralidharan K, Stevens EE, & Wemmer CM. 2001. Phylogeography of the Asian elephant (Elephas maximus) based on Mitochondrial DNA. Evolution 55, 1882-1892.
  13. Foley CAH & Faust LJ. 2010. Rapid population growth in an elephant Loxodonta africana population recovering from poaching in Tarangire National Park, Tanzania. Oryx 44, 205.
  14. Gopala A, Hadian O, Sunarto, Sitompul A, Williams A, Leimgruber P, Chambliss SE, & Gunaryadi D. 2011. Elephas maximus ssp. Sumatranus. The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species 2011: e.T199856A9129626 http://dx.doi.org/10.2305/IUCN.UK.2011-2.RL TS.T199856A9129626.en
  15. Gough KF & Kerley GIH. 2006. Demography and population dynamics in the elephants Loxodonta africana of Addo Elephant National Park, South Africa: is there evidence of density dependent regulation ? Oryx 40, 434-441.
  16. Hedges S, Tyson MJ, Sitompul AF, Kinnaird MF, & Gunaryadi D. 2005. Distribution, status, and conservation needs of Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) in Lampung Province, Sumatra, Indonesia. Biological Conservation 124, 35-48.
  17. van Heum FC. 1929. Die Olifanten van Sumatra. Druk. Gerretsen, Den Haag.
  18. Imron MA, Gergs A, & Berger U. 2011. Structure and sensitivity analysis of individual-based predator–prey models. Reliability Engineering & System Safety 107, 71-81.
  19. Lacy RC. 1993. VORTEX: a computer simulation model for population viability analysis. Wildlife Research 20, 45-65.
  20. Lacy RC. 2000. Structure of the VORTEX simulation model for population viability analysis. Ecological Bulletins 48, 191-203.
  21. Lacy RC, Miller PS, & Traylor-Holzer K. 2015. Vortex 10 User’s Manual. 15 April 2015 update. Apple Valley, Minnesota, USA.
  22. Lacy RC & Pollak JP. 2015. Vortex : A Stochastic Simulation of the Extinction Process. Version 10.1. Brookfield, Illinois, USA.
  23. Laws RM, Parker ICS, & Johnstone RCB. 1975. Elephants and Their Habitats: The Ecology of Elephants in North Bunyoro, Uganda. Clarendon Press, Oxford, U.K. 388.
  24. Menteri Kehutanan. 2004. Peraturan Menteri Kehutanan Nomor?: SK.159/Menhut-II /2004 - Restorasi Ekosistem di Kawasan Hutan Produksi. Indonesia.
  25. Moßbrucker AM. 2009. Zum Status des Sumatra Elefanten (Elephas maximus sumatranus) im Landschaftsraum Bukit Tigapuluh, Sumatra, Indonesien?: Abundanz Altersstruktur und Gefährdung. Diplomarbeit (unpublished).Universtiy of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany.
  26. Moßbrucker AM, Apriyana I, Fickel J, Imron MA, Pudyatmoko S, Sumardi, & Suryadi H. 2015. Non-invasive genotyping of Sumatran elephants?: implications for conservation. Tropical Conservation Science 8,745-759.
  27. Moßbrucker AM, Fleming CH, Imron MA, Pudyatmoko S, & Sumardi. (n.d.). AKDE home range size and habitat selection of Sumatran elephants in Bukit Tigapuluh. Submitted to Wildlife Research.
  28. Noss RF. 1987. Corridors in real landscapes: A reply to Simberloff and Cox. Conservation Biology 1, 59-164.
  29. O’Grady JJ, Brook BW, Reed DH, Ballou JD, Tonkyn DW, & Frankham R. 2006. Realistic levels of inbreeding depression strongly affect extinction risk in wild populations. Biological Conservation 133, 42-51.
  30. Reed DH, O’Grady JJ, Ballou JD, & Frankham R. 2003. The frequency and severity of catastrophic die-offs in vertebrates. Animal Conservation 6,109-114.
  31. Rosenberg DK, Noon BR, & Meslow EC. 1997. Biological corridors: Form, function, and efficacy. BioScience 47, 677-687.
  32. Santiapillai C & Jackson P. 1990. The Asian Elephant. An Action Plan for its Conservation. Gland, Switzerland. 79.
  33. Santiapillai C & Suprahman H. 1986. The ecology of the elephant (Elephas maximus L.) in the Way Kambas Game Reserve, Sumatra. WWF/IUCN Project 3133 Report. Bogor, Indonesia.
  34. Schmitt D. 2006. Reproductive System. In: Biology, Medicine, and Surgery of Elephants. Fowler ME & Mikota SK (Eds). First edition. Blackwell Publishing, Oxford. 347–357.
  35. Shoshani J & Eisenberg JF. 1982. Elephas maximus. Mammalian Species 182, 1-8.
  36. de Silva SD & Wittemyer G. 2012. A comparison of social organization in Asian elephants and African savannah elephants. International Journal of Primatogology 33, 1125-1141.
  37. Simberloff D & Cox J. 1987. Consequences and costs of conservation corridors. Conservation Biology 1, 63-71.
  38. Simberloff D, Farr JA, Cox J, & Mehlman DW. 1992. Movement corridors: Conservation bargains or poor investments? Conservation Biology 6, 493-504.
  39. Sukumar R. 1992. The Asian Elephant: Ecology and Management. Cambridge Studies in Applied Ecology and Resource Management. 255.
  40. Sukumar R. 1993. Minimum viable populations for elephant conservation. Gajah 11, 48-52.
  41. Sukumar R. 2003. The Living Elephants: Evolutionary Ecology, Behavior, and Conservation. Oxford University Press, Oxford. 478.
  42. Sukumar R & Santiapillai C. 1993. Asian elephant in Sumatra Population and habitat viability analysis. Gajah 11, 59-63.
  43. Wittemyer G, Daballen D, & Douglas-hamilton I. 2013. Comparative demography of an at-risk African elephant population. PloS one 8, 1-10.
  44. Wu LS & Botkin DB. 1980. Of elephants and men: A discrete, stochastic model for long-lived species with complex life histories. The American Naturalist 116, 831-849.



DOI: https://doi.org/10.22146/jik.12622

Article Metrics

Abstract views : 8452 | views : 5905

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Bookmark and Share


Copyright (c) 2016 Jurnal Ilmu Kehutanan

License URL: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/

© Editorial Board Jurnal Ilmu Kehutanan
Faculty of Forestry, Universitas Gadjah Mada
Building D 2nd floor
Jl. Agro No 1, Bulaksumur, Sleman 55281
Phone. +62-274-512102, +62-274-550541, +62-274-6491420
Fax. +62-274-550541 E-mail : jik@ugm.ac.id
former website : jurnal.ugm.ac.id/jikfkt/
new website : jurnal.ugm.ac.id/v3/jik/

 

Indexed by:

 

Jurnal Ilmu Kehutanan is under the license of Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International