MODEL KOREKSI KESALAHAN UNTUK PERMINTAAN IMPOR BAHAN DAKAR MINYAK DI INDONESIA
Insukindro Insukindro(1*)
(1) Fakultas Ekonomi, UGM
(*) Corresponding Author
Abstract
Bukanlah suatu rahasia lagi bahwa model ekonometrik dinamik merupakan
salah satu pendekatan penting dalam analisis ekonomi. Hal ini karena
sebagian besar analisis ekonomi berkaitan erat dengan analisis runtunan waktu
(time series) yang sering diujudkan oleh hubungan antara perubahan suatu besaran
ekonomi dan kebijakan ekonomi di suatu saat dan pengaruhnya terhadap gejala
dan perilaku ekonomi di saat yang lain. Hubungan semacam ini telah banyak
dicoba untuk dirumuskan dalam model linier dinamik, namun tidak dapat
dipungkiri bahwa sampai saat ini belum terdapat kesepakatan mengenai model
dinamik mana yang paling cocok untuk suatu analisis ekonomi. Kelangkaan akan
adanya kesepakatan tersebut dikarenakan adanya banyak faktor yang berpengaruh
dalam pembentukan model itu, misalnya: pengaruh faktor kelembagaan, peranan
penguasa ekonomi dan pandangan si pembuat model mengenai gejala dan situasi
ekonomi yang menjadi pusat perhatiannya (Barten, 1981; De Grauwe, 1983 dan
Cuthbert-son, 1988).
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