KAUSALITAS ANTARA EKSPOR DAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI

Aliman Aliman; A. Budi Purnomo

KAUSALITAS ANTARA EKSPOR DAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI

Aliman Aliman^(1*), A. Budi Purnomo⁽²⁾

(1) Universitas Gadjah Mada
(2) Universitas Gadjah Mada
(*) Corresponding Author

Abstract

The debate about the role of exports in the development of economic theory has emerged since the 1950s. In the macroeconomic theory, the relationships between export and economic growth and / or national income is an identity because export is a part of national income, but in development economics, heavily concern over matters wether export make prosperity (wealth) or suffering to a nation. Jung and Marshall (1985) examine four viewpoints characterize equally plausible hypothesis of relationships between export and economic growth: (1) export-led growth hypothesis, (2) internally generated export hypothesis, (3) export-reducing growth hypothesis and (4) growth-reducing export hypothesis. The empirical result using real national income and real export data over 1969–1997 suggests that error correction causality tests show bidirectional pattern, but according to the value of error correction term, adjustment coefficient reaction, Granger-causality test (1969) and final prediction error (FPE) show unidirectional causality from real national income to real export. Thus, over the period 1969-1997, Indonesia supported internally generated export hypothesis.

Keywords

export-led growth hypothesis, internally generated export hypothesis, export-reducing growth hypothesis and growth-reducing export hypothesis

Full Text:

PDF

References

Aliman (1998),‖ Model Autoregresif Analisis Kausalitas Antara Jumlah Uang Beredar dan Tingkat Pendapatan Nasional: Studi Kasus Indonesia-Thailand‖, Jurnal Eko-nomi dan Bisnis Indonesia, Vol. 13, No. 4: 12-29. Arief, Sritua (1998), Teori dan Kebijaksanaan Pembangunan, Edisi Pertama, CIDES, Jakarta. Badan Pusat Statistik, Indikator Ekonomi, Beberapa Edisi. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen and Janardhanan Alse (1993),‖ Export Growth and Economic Growth: An Application of Cointegration and Error-Correction Modeling‖, Journal of Developing Areas, Vol. 27, No. 4, July: 535-542. Boltho, Andrea (1996),‖ Was Japanese Growth Export-Led?‖, Oxford Economic Papers, Vol. 48: 415-432. Budiman, Arief (1995), Teori Pembangunan Dunia Ketiga, Edisi Pertama, Gramedia Pustaka Utama, Jakarta. Cheng, Benjamin S. and Qiyu Chu (1996),‖ U.S. Exports and Economic growth Causality‖, Atlantic Economic Journal, Vol. 24, Issue 3, September: 263. Chowdhury, Khorshed (1998),‖ The Relationship Between Trade and Growth: International Evidence‖, in Satya Paul (eds.), Trade and Growth: New Theory and the Australia Experience, Allen & Unwin, Australia, 1998. Dickey, David A. and Wayne A. Fuller (1981),‖ Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root‖, Econometrica, Vol. 49: 12-27. Dodaro, Santo (1993),‖ Export and Growth: A Reconsideration of Causality‖, Journal of Developing Areas, Vol. 27, No. 2, January: 227-244. Doraisami, Anita (1996),‖ Export Growth and Economic Growth: A Reexamination of Some Time-Series Evidence of the Malaysia Experience‖, Journal of Developing Areas, Vol. 30, No. 2, January: 223-230. Dutt, Swarna D. and Dipak Ghosh (1996),‖ The Export Growth-Economic Growth Nexus: A Causality Analysis”, Journal of Developing Areas, Vol. 30, No. 2, January: 167-182. Granger, C.W.J. (1969),‖ Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross Spectral Methods‖, Econometrica, Vol. 37, No. 3, July: 424-438. Granger, C. W. J. (1988),‖ Some Recent Development Concept of Causality‖, Journal of Econometrics, No. 39: 199-211. Feder, Geshon (1982),‖ On Exports and Economic Growth‖, Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 12, No. ½, February/April: 59-73. Heng, Loke Wai and Evelyn Devadason (1996),‖ FDI, Exports and Economic Growth in Malaysia: Cointegration and Causality Analyses‖, Paper Prepared for Conference on the Fifth Convention of the East Asian Economic Association on the Financial Interdepence of East Asian Economies, Organized by East Asian Economic Association and The Faculty of Economics, Thammasat University, Bangkok, Thailand, 25-26, October, 1996: 1-19. Hogendorn, Jan S. (1996), Economic Development, 3rd Edition, HarperCollins Publishers, Inc. Hsiao, Cheng (1979),‖ Autoregressive Modeling of Canadian Money and Income Data‖, Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 74, No. 367, September: 553-560. Insukindro (1998),‖ Currency Crisis in Indonesia and its Linkages in Selected Asian Foreign Exchange Markets‖, Paper Prepared for Conference on the Asian Crisis: A Global Perspective, Organized by Deakin University and the Editors of JITED, Melbourne, 4-6, October, 1998: 1-14. Jung, Woo S. and Peyton J. Marshall (1985),‖ Export, Growth and Causality in Developing Countries‖, Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 18: 1-12. Karunaratne, Neil Dias (1996),‖ Growth and Trade Dynamics under Regime Shifts in Australia‖, Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. 23, No. 2: 55-69. Kirkpatrick, Colin (1987),‖Kebijakan Perdagangan dan Industrialisasi di Berbagai LDC's‖, dalam Norman Gemmel (eds.), Ilmu Ekonomi Pembangunan, Beberapa Survai, Cetakan Pertama, LP3ES, Jakarta, 1994. Kravis, Irving B. (1970),‖ Trade as a Handmaiden of Growth: Similarities Between the Nineteenth and Twentieth Centuries‖, Economic Journal, Vol. LXXX, No. 320, December 1970: 850-872. Krueger, Anne O. (1978), Liberalization Attempts and Consequences, National Bureau of Economic Research, New York, USA. Mankiw, Gregory N. (1994),‖Foreward‖, in, Robert. J. Barro and Xavier Sala-I-Martin, Economic Growth, McGraw-Hill International Editions, 1st Edition: xv-xvi. McCarville, Mary and Emmanuel Nndozie (1995),‖ Causality Tests of Export-Led Growth: The Case of Mexico‖, Atlantic Economic Journal, Vol. 23, Issue 2, June: 140-145. Myrdal, G. (1956), An International Economy, New York, Harper & Row. Paul, Satya (1998),‖ Export and Growth: A Review of Empirical Evidence‖, in Satya Paul (eds.), Trade and Growth: New Theory and the Australia Experience, Allen & Unwin, Australia, 1998. Pomponio, Xun Z. (1996),‖ A Causality Analysis of Growth and Export Performance‖, Atlantic Economic Journal, Vol. 24, Issue 2: 168-176. Poon, Jessie (1994),‖ Effect of World Demand and Competitiveness on Exports and Economic Growth‖, Growth and Change, Vol. 25, Winter: 3-24. Ram, Rati (1987),‖ Exports and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: Evidence from Time-Series and Cross-Section Data‖, Economic Development and Cultural Change, Vol. 36, October: 51-72. Salvatore, Dominick (1996), International Economics, 5th Edition, Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey. Siregar, Masdjidin (1999),‖ Kausalitas Antara Ekspor dan PDB di Indonesia, 1970-1997‖, Ekonomi dan Keuangan Indonesia, Vol. XLVII, No. 3: 313-331. Swasono, Yudo dan Endang Sulistyaningsih (1989),‖ Exports and Growth: A Comparison Between Indonesia and Singapore‖, Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Indonesia, Vol. III, No. 2: 47-57. Syron, Richard F. and Brendan M. Walsh (1969),‖ The Relation of Exports and Economic Growth: A Note‖, Kyklos, Vol. XXI, Fasc. 3: 541-545. Todaro, Michael P. (1997), Economic Development, 6th, Addison Wesley Longman Limited, USA. Tyler, William G. (1981),‖ Growth and Exports Expansion in Developing Countries‖, Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 9, No. 1, August: 121-130. Utomo, Yuni Prohadi (2000),‖ Ekspor mendorong Pertumbuhan atau Pertumbuhan Mendorong Ekspor‖, Jurnal Manajemen Daya Saing, Vol. 1, No. 1, Juni: 48-65. World Bank (1987), World Development Report 1987, New York, USA. Yaghmaian, Behzad (1995),‖ Export Performance and Economic Development: An Empirical Analysis‖, American Economist, Vol. 39, Fall: 37-45.

Article Metrics

Abstract views : 3988 |

Refbacks

There are currently no refbacks.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Journal of Indonesian Economy and Business

Journal

Editorial Team
Focus and Scope
Peer Review Process
Publication Ethics
Screening for Plagiarism

Authors

Author Guidelines
Submission Guidelines
Online Submissions
Copyright Notice
Privacy Statement
Author Fees

Download

Author Pack
Submission Form & Manuscript Template

Reviewer

Reviewer Guidelines
Reviewer Acknowledgement

Reader

General Search
Achieves
Author index
Title index

The Journal of Indonesian Economy and Business (print ISSN 2085-8272; online ISSN 2338-5847) is published by the Faculty of Economics and Business Universitas Gadjah Mada, Indonesia. The content of this website is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License

Visitor Statistics