Implementasi Neural Fuzzy Inference System dan Algoritma Pelatihan Levenberg-Marquardt untuk Prediksi Curah Hujan

Abstract

Rainfall prediction can be used for various purposes and the accuracy in predicting is important in many ways.  In this research, data of rainfall prediction use daily rainfall data from 2013-2014 years at rainfall station in Putussibau, West Kalimantan. Rainfall prediction using four parameters: mean temperature, average humidity, wind speed and mean sea level pressure.

This research to determine how performance Neural Fuzzy Inference System with Levenberg-Marquardt training algorithm for rainfall prediction. Fuzzy logic can be used to resolve the linguistic variables used in rule of rainfall. While neural networks have ability to adapt and learning process, due to recognize patterns of data from input need training to prediction. And Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm is used for training because of effectiveness and convergence acceleration.

The results showed five models NFIS-LM developed using a variety of membership functions as input obtained that model NFIS-LM with twelve of membership functions and use four inputs, such as mean temperature, average humidity, wind speed and mean sea level pressure gives best results to predict rainfall with values Mean Square Error (MSE) of 0.0262050. When compared with model NN-Backpropagation, NFIS-LM models showed lower accuracy. It is shown from MSE generated where model NN-Backpropagation generate MSE of 0.0167990.