Evaluasi Keandalan Perencanaan Pembangkit Wilayah Jawa-Bali dengan Mempertimbangkan Ketidakpastian Peramalan Beban

  • Avrin Nur Widiastuti Universitas Gadjah Mada
  • Sarjiya Universitas Gadjah Mada
  • Kukuh Arung Pinanditho Universitas Gadjah Mada
  • Eko Tri Prastyo Universitas Gadjah Mada
Keywords: keandalan, sistem Jawa-Bali, LOLE, LOLP, LFU

Abstract

Power system reliability is one of important aspects of power system operation. Lack of capacity in the generation system will affect reliability level of the power system. System evaluation needs to be done to know whether the system is still reliable to supply the load that is projected to increase 8.2% per year. Java-Bali system evaluation planning period 2015-2024 is conducted in this paper. Load forecast uncertainty (LFU) is one of the parameters that needs to be considered when conducting system planning. It is because load tends to be uncertain. This research uses two scenarios: without and with load forecast uncertainty. Reliability indexes LOLE and LOLP are used to evaluate the Java-Bali system. All calculations are based on a program using MATLAB. The result shows that reliability indexes LOLE and LOLP are higher with considering LFU. It means reliability decreases, rather than planning without considering LFU. Moreover, Java-Bali system reliability indexes meet the PLN’s standard value with the best value acquired in 2019.

References

W. D. Stevenson and J. J. Grainger, Power System Analysis, New York: McGraw-Hill, 1994.

R. Billinton and R. N. Allan, "Power System Reliability in Perspective," IEEE J. Electronics Power, vol. 30, pp. 231-6, 1984.

Bambang Winardi, Heru Winarno, and Kurnanda Rizky Aditama, "Perbaikan Losses dan Drop Tegangan PWI 9 dengan Pelimpahan Beban Ke Penyulang Baru PWI 11 di PT PLN (Persero) Area Semarang," TRANSMISI, vol. 2, no. 18, pp. 65-69, 2016.

Rudy Gianto, Hendro Priyatman, "Optimalisasi Peralatan Kontrol Sistem Tenaga Listrik Untuk Meningkatkan Kestabilan Sistem Berukuran Besar," TRANSMISI, vol. Oktober 2015, no. 17, pp. 218-225, 2015.

“Rencana Usaha Penyediaan Tenaga Listrik 2015-2024”, PT. PLN (Persero), 2015.

Aditya, Reza, (2002) Tempo.co. [Online]. Available: http://bisnis.tempo.co/read/news/2015/09/10/092699460/alasan-jokowi-lanjutkan-proyek-listrik-35-ribu-mw, Diakses pada 10 November 2015.

Billinton, Roy, Allan, Ronald N., Reliability Evaluation of Power System, New York: Plenum Press, 1996. Prasetyo,

V. P. N, "Loss of Load Probability of a Power System," Munich Personal RePEc Archive, Muenchen, 2008.

Kurniawan, Nanang, "Studi Peningkatan Keandalan Sistem Pada Pembangkit Listrik Tenaga Uap Tambak Lorok Berdasarkan Probabilistik Kehilangan Beban," Skripsi, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta, Indonesia, 2003.

Gunawan Eko, Sulasno, Susatyo Handoko, "Studi Tentang Indeks Keandalan Pembangkit Tenaga Listrik Wilayah Jawa Tengah dan Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta," Skripsi, Universitas Diponegoro, Semarang, Indonesia, 2011.

Vega Hernandez, Nahun Bulmaro, "Load Forecast Uncertainty Considerations In Bulk Electrical System Adequacy Assessment," M.Sc. Thesis, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, 2009.

Wijayanti, Daniar Rizki, "Penjadwalan Pembangkit Dengan Constraint Keandalan Menggunakan Algoritma Genetika Mempertimbangkan Ketidakpastian Beban," Skripsi, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta, 2014.

PT. PLN (persero) P3B Jawa Bali, "Evaluasi Operasi Sistem Tenaga Listrik Jawa Bali," PT. PLN (persero) P3B Jawa Bali, Jakarta, 2013.

PT. PLN (persero), "Rencana Usaha Penyediaan Tenaga Listrik 2009-2018," PT. PLN (persero), Jakarta, 2008.

How to Cite
Avrin Nur Widiastuti, Sarjiya, Kukuh Arung Pinanditho, & Eko Tri Prastyo. (1). Evaluasi Keandalan Perencanaan Pembangkit Wilayah Jawa-Bali dengan Mempertimbangkan Ketidakpastian Peramalan Beban. Jurnal Nasional Teknik Elektro Dan Teknologi Informasi, 6(2), 230-234. Retrieved from https://dev.journal.ugm.ac.id/v3/JNTETI/article/view/2861
Section
Articles