Prediction Analysis of Tobacco Production in Temanggung District

Abstract

Tobacco is a raw material for making cigarettes and one of the most considerable income contributions of Indonesia. This research aims to determine tobacco productivity and predict tobacco production from 2017–2021 in Temanggung, Central Java, based on the previous tobacco production of 1987–2016. Trend analysis was used to estimate tobacco productivity in Temanggung. ARIMA method predicts tobacco production for five years, namely 2017–2021, but does not require a specific data pattern. ARIMA method also works effectively for short period time data. The research results show that tobacco productivity in Temanggung increased by 0.0053 ton/ha per year. ARIMA model (0,1,1) showed that tobacco is predicted to increase during the 2017-2021 period in Temanggung.