PENDUGAAN DAMPAK KEBIJAKAN SUKU BUNGA TERHADAP KINERJA EKONOMI MAKRO SEKTOR PERIKANAN: ANALISIS JALUR INVESTASI DAN EKSPOR MENGGUNAKAN PENDEKATAN MODEL STRUCTURAL VECTOR AUTOREGRESSION

https://doi.org/10.22146/jfs.9069

Tajerin Tajerin(1*)

(1) Pusat Riset Pengolahan Produk dan Sosial Ekonomi Kelautan dan Perikanan
(*) Corresponding Author

Abstract


Rapid and complicated development of system, operation, and money market instrument contribute in separation process between monetary and real sectors activities that deminise the effectiveness of monetary policy. Transmission mechanism test by using investment and net export channels indicated that increase in the interest rate of Indonesian Bank Certificate had negative impact on the performance, investment, export and Product Domestic Brutto of fisheries sectors.  Monetary instrument should be designed to drive aggregate demand in fisheries sectors in accordance with economical capacity from supply side. On the other hand, proactive effort in fisheries sectors was needed through the monetary policy from Bank of Indonesia to increase productivity of macro economy in fisheries sectors.  

Rapid and complicated development of system, operation, and money market instrument contribute in separation process between monetary and real sectors activities that deminise the effectiveness of monetary policy.  Transmission mechanism test by using investment and net export channels indicated that increase in the interest rate of Indonesian Bank Certificate had negative impact on the performance, investment, export and Product Domestic Brutto of fisheries sectors.  Monetary instrument should be designed to drive aggregate demand in fisheries sectors in accordance with economical capacity from supply side. On the other hand, proactive effort in fisheries sectors was needed through the monetary policy from Bank of Indonesia to increase productivity of macro economy in fisheries sectors.  


Keywords


fisheries sector, interest rate policy, macro economy, SVAR

Full Text:

PDF


References

Boediono. 1998. Merenungkan kembali mekanisme transmisi moneter di Indonesia. Buletin Ekonomi Mo-neter dan Perbankan. 1(1): 9-23.

Brischetto, A. and G. Voss. 1999. A structural vector autoregression model of monetary policy in Australia. Reserve Bank of Australia. Research Discussion Paper. December. 29 p.

Flemming, J.M. 1983. Domestic financial under fixed and under floating exchange rates. Staff papers. 9(1): 379-369.

Gordon, D.B. and E.M. Leeper. 1994. The dynamic impacts of monetary policy: an exercises in tentative identification. Journal of Political Economy. 102(6): 1228-1247.

Granger, C.W.J. 1969. Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica. 37(2): 65-91.

Gujarati, D. 1995. Basic econometrics. McGraw-Hill. Singapore: 335-382.

Jannes, E.W. 2003. Mampukah perikanan Indonesia jadi pemain utama di pasar dunia. Kompas. 10 April 2003.

Reksoprayitno, S. 2000. Ekonomi makro: analisis IS-LM dan pemintaan-penawaran agregatif. Edisi Milleni-um. BPFE. UGM. Yogyakarta: 47-53.

Rudebusch, G.D. 1998. Do measures of monetary policy in a VAR make sense? International Economic Review. 39(4): 907-931.

Sims, C.A. 1980a. Macroeconomic and reality. Econometrica. 48(1): 1-48.

Sims, C.A. 1980b. Comparison of interwar and postwar business cycles: monetariem reconsidered. The American Economic Review. 70(2): 250-257.

Sims, C.A. 1980c. Money, income and causality. American Economic Review. September 1980: 64-75.

Siswanto, B. dan Prayitno. 1999. Peningkatan daya saing produk dan kinerja ekspor Indonesia dalam rangka pemulihan perekono-mian Indonesia. Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan. 2(1): 99-133.

Thomas, R.L. 1997. Modern econo-metrics: an introduction. England. Addison-Wesley.

Warjiyo, P. dan D. Zulverdi. 1998. Peng-gunaan suku bunga sebagai sasaran operasional kebijakan moneter di Indonesia. Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan. 1(1): 25-53.

Wijoyo, S. dan R. Anglingkusumo. 1998. Underlying inflation sebagai indi-kator harga yang relevan dengan kebijakan moneter: sebuah tinjauan untuk Indonesia. Buletin Eko-nomi Moneter dan Perbankan. 1(1): 54-69.

Yudanto, N. dan S. Santoso. 1988. Dampak krisis moneter terhadap sektor riil. Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan. 1(2): 131-158.



DOI: https://doi.org/10.22146/jfs.9069

Article Metrics

Abstract views : 1957 | views : 5605

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Bookmark and Share


Copyright (c) 2016 Journal of Fisheries Sciences



Jurnal Perikanan Universitas Gadjah Mada (print ISSN 0853-6384; online ISSN 2502-5066) is published by Department of Fisheries, Universitas Gadjah Mada in collaboration with Semnaskan UGM (Seminar Nasional Tahunan Hasil Perikanan dan Kelautan) and ISMFR (International Symposium on Marine and Fisheries Research).

 

View My Stats