The Evaluation of Several Alternative Policies’ Impact  on The Mandarin (Citrus Reticulata) Industry in Indonesia: A System Dynamics Analysis

Lyli mufidah; Fatimah Mohamed Arshad; Shaufique Sidique; Agus Sugiyatno; Abdulla Ibragimov

doi:10.22146/ae.43755

The Evaluation of Several Alternative Policies’ Impact on The Mandarin (Citrus Reticulata) Industry in Indonesia: A System Dynamics Analysis

https://doi.org/10.22146/ae.43755

Lyli mufidah^(1*), Fatimah Mohamed Arshad⁽²⁾, Shaufique Sidique⁽³⁾, Agus Sugiyatno⁽⁴⁾, Abdulla Ibragimov⁽⁵⁾

(1) Indonesian Citrus and Subtropical Fruits Research Institute (ICSFRI)
(2) Institute of Agricultural and Food Policy Studies-UPM
(3) Institute of Agricultural and Food Policy Studies-UPM
(4) Indonesian Citrus and Subtropical Fruits Research Institute (ICSFRI)
(5) Institute of Agricultural and Food Policy Studies-UPM
(*) Corresponding Author

Abstract

The increase in imports and the decline in Indonesia's production triggered the government’s intervention in the form of non-tariff barriers. This will surely make a change in Indonesia's mandarin landscape industry. Therefore, this paper aims to construct structured factors building the mandarin industry and attempts to evaluate the impact of several alternative policies, including the non-tariff barriers imposed, in the purpose to find the policies that sustain the industry in the future. Systems dynamics are employed due to their ability to accommodate time delay and reciprocal relationships between sub-systems found in the industry. The time series data of mandarin from BPS were used in this research from 1999 to 2012, which includes production, productive area, productivity, price, local consumption and import.The first step is to construct the existing pattern of the mandarin industry in Indonesia. Afterward, six different scenarios were simulated, including the non-tariff barriers; and they were compared for their ability to sustain the Indonesian mandarin industry. The ability was assessed from the relative value, production, expected profits and import value. The analysis results recommend the government to pay more attention to the disease management and to improve the ratio of agricultural extension agents to areas, which can lead to a more significant impact on the mandarin industry in Indonesia, even with the gradual elimination of non-tariff barriers.

Keywords

cvpd/ huanglongbing, disease management, Indonesia's mandarin industry, non-tariff barrier, system dynamics

Full Text:

PDF

References

Abdulla, I., Arshad, F. M., Bala, B. K., Noh, K. M., & Tasrif, M. (2014). Impact of cpo export duties on Malaysian palm oil industry. American Journal of Applied Sciences, 11(8), 1301–1309. https://doi.org/10.3844/ajassp.2014.1301.1309

Adipraja, P. F. E., & Sulistyo, D. A. (2018). Pemodelan Sistem Dinamik untuk Prediksi Intensitas Hujan Harian di Kota Malang. Jurnal Ilmiah Teknologi Informasi Asia, 12(2), 137. https://doi.org/10.32815/jitika.v12i2.272

Arsanti, I. W., Marbun, F., & Micharam, I. (2015). Upaya peningkatan daya saing komoditas jeruk melalui pendekatan system dynamic, studi kasus: sentra produksi Kabupaten Karo dan sentra konsumsi DKI Jakarta. In Kebijakan pencapaian swasembada dan swasembada berkelanjutan lima komoditas utama pertanian melalui pendekatan sistem dinamik (pp. 165–180).

Bassanezi, R. B., Montesino, L. H., Gasparoto, M. C. G., Filho, A. B., & Amorim, L. (2011). Yield loss caused by huanglongbing in different sweet orange cultivars in São Paulo, Brazil. European Journal of Plant Pathology, 130(4), 577–586. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10658-011-9779-1

Duflo, E; M, Kremer; J, R. (2011). Nudging farmers to use fertilizer: “Theory and Experimental Evidence from Kenya.” American Economic Review, 101(6), 2350–2390.

Ernawati, Lilis; Suryani, E. (2013). Analisis faktor produktivitas gula nasional dan pengaruhnya terhadap harga gula domestik dan permintaan gula impor dengan menggunakan sistem dinamik. Jurnal Teknik Pomits, 1(1), 1–7.

Ferreira, J. O., Batalha, M. O., & Domingos, J. C. (2016). Integrated planning model for citrus agribusiness system using systems dynamics. Computers and Electronics in Agriculture, 126, 1–11. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compag.2016.04.029

Hidayatno, A., Sutrisno, A., Zagloel, Y. M., & Purwanto, W. W. (2011). System Dynamics Sustainability Model of Palm-Oil Based Biodiesel Production Chain in Indonesia. International Journal of Engineering & Technology, 11(June), 1–6. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmicb.2016.00933

L, Fu Jia; D., Suo Cheng; L, F. (2012). A system dynamics model for analyzing the eco-agriculture system with policy recommendations. Ecological Modelling, 227, 34–45.

Marks, S. V. (2012). Indonesian Horticultural Imports and Policy Responses-An Assessment. Washington, D.C, USA.

Meitayani, N. P. S., Adiartayasa, W., & Wijaya, I. N. (2014). Deteksi Penyakit Citrus Vein Phloem Degeneration (CVPD) dengan Teknik Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) pada Tanaman Jeruk di Bali. E-Jurnal Agroekoteknologi Tropika, 3(2), 70–79.

Nurhadi. (2015). PENYAKIT HUANGLONGBING TANAMAN JERUK ( Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus ): ANCAMAN DAN STRATEGI PENGENDALIAN Huanglongbing Disease ( Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus ) on Citrus : Threats and Control Strategy. Pengembangan Inovasi Pertanian, 8(1), 21–32.

P, Kaufmann; S, Stagl; D.W, F. (2009). Simulating the difusion of organic farming practices in two new EU Member States. Ecological Economics, 68, 2580–2593.

Pan, Y., Smith, S. C., & Sulaiman, M. (2018). Agricultural extension and technology adoption for food security: Evidence from Uganda. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 100(4), 1012–1031. https://doi.org/10.1093/ajae/aay012

Pardey, P. G., Alston, J. M., & Kang, C. C. (2012). Agricultural Production , Productivity and R & D over the Past Half Century : An Emerging New World Order. In Conference of International Association of Agricultural Economists (p. 48).

Qudrat-Ullah, H. (2012). On the validation of system dynamics type simulation models. Telecommunication Systems, 51(2–3), 159–166. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11235-011-9425-4

Rozman, Č., Kljajić, M., & Škraba, A. (2015). System dynamics model for conversion to organic farming. Journal of Siberian Federal University - Mathematics and Physics, 8(1), 67–74. https://doi.org/10.17516/1997-1397-2015-8-1-64-74

Spreen, T. H., Baldwin, J. P., & Futch, S. H. (2014). An economic assessment of the impact of Huanglongbing on citrus tree plantings in Florida. HortScience, 49(8), 1052–1055.

Sterman, J. D. (2004). Business Dynamics : Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. McGraw-Hill (Vol. 34). USA. https://doi.org/10.1108/13673270210417646

Teimoury, E., Nedaei, H., Ansari, S., & Sabbaghi, M. (2013). A multi-objective analysis for import quota policy making in a perishable fruit and vegetable supply chain: A system dynamics approach. Computers and Electronics in Agriculture, 93, 37–45. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compag.2013.01.010

Thohirah Lee Abdullah Kamaruzaman Sijam and Siti Nor Akmar, H. S., & Abdullah. (2009). Control of Huanglongbing (HLB) disease with reference to its occurrence in Malaysia. African Journal of Biotechnology, 8(17), 4007–4015. https://doi.org/10.5897/AJB09.678

Udry, C. (2010). The economics of agriculture in Africa: notes toward a research program. African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 5(1), 284–299.

Wossen, T., Abdoulaye, T., Alene, A., Haile, M. G., Feleke, S., Olanrewaju, A., & Manyong, V. (2017). Impacts of extension access and cooperative membership on technology adoption and household welfare. Journal of Rural Studies, 54, 223–233. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2017.06.022

Yunna, W., Kaifeng, C., Yisheng, Y., & Tiantian, F. (2015). A system dynamics analysis of technology, cost and policy that affect the market competition of shale gas in China. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 45, 235–243. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2015.01.060

DOI: https://doi.org/10.22146/ae.43755