Spatial Dynamics Model of Land Availability and Population Growth Prediction in Bengkulu City

https://doi.org/10.22146/ijg.44591

Della Ayu Lestari(1*), Dewi Susiloningtyas(2), Supriatna Supriatna(3)

(1) Marine Information System, Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia
(2) Geography Department, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Indonesia, Indonesia
(3) Geography Department, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Indonesia, Indonesia
(*) Corresponding Author

Abstract


Bengkulu City is the center for almost all activities and has a high population growth rate. Because of the high population growth rate, human needs for space and land will increase. Land availability will continue to decline, while it cannot increase the existing area. This will impact the carrying capacity of the environment, so it needs predictions for land availability. This study used a spatial dynamics model which is an analysis of the dynamic system model and the suitability of the built-up area. The carrying capacity to reach excellent quality when the length of the built-up area is 30-70% of the total area that can be used. The results showed that the built-up area will reach 70% in 2030, which means it will exceed the environmental carrying capacity threshold. The results showed there were differences between the distribution patterns of built-up area in the spatial dynamics model and Spatial Planning Bengkulu City in 2032 at Kampung Melayu Subdistrict, Selebar Subdistrict, Singaran Pati Subdistrict, and Sungai Serut Subdistrict.


Keywords


Tacit Knowledge; Indigenous; Disaster; Hazard; Risk Reduction

Full Text:

PDF


References

Agency, B. P. (2018, August 1). Three Big Things Become Population Issues. Retrieved from Bengkulu Province National Population and Family Planning Agency: http://bengkulu.bkkbn.go.id/ViewBerita.aspx?BeritaID=1801

Ariani, R. D., & Harini, R. (2012). Population Pressure On Farm Land In The Agricultural Land Area (Case Minggir and Moyudan Sub District). Bumi Indonesia Journal, 422-428.

Asfari, A., Supriatna, & Rizqihandari, N. (2017). Spatial Dynamics Model Relationship between Population Growth and Land Availability in North Cianjur Regency, West Java Province. Industrial Research , 254-260.

Balcik, F. B., & Kacuzu, K. (2016). Determination of land cover/land using SPOT 7 data with supervised classification methods. Information Form Imagery, 143-146.

Cahayadinata, I., & Arianti, N. N. (2016). Study on the Impact of Regional Expansion on Economic Gaps between Coastal Regions in Bengkulu Province. AGRISEP Journal, 27-36.

Coletta, V. R., Pagano, A., Pluchinotta, I., Fratino, U., Scrieciu, A., & Giordano, R. (2020). Causal Loop Diagrams for supporting Nature Based Solutions participatory design and performance assessment. Journal of Environmental Management, 111-118.

Debolini, M., Marraccini, E., Dubeuf, J. P., Geijzendorffer, I. R., Guerra, C., Simon, M., . . . Napoleone, C. (2018). Land and farming system dynamics and their drivers in the Mediterranean Basin. Land Use Policy, 702-710.

Elsawah, S., Pierce, S. A., Hamilton, S. H., Delden, H. V., Haase, D., Elmahdi, A., & Jakeman, A. J. (2017). An overview of the system dynamics process for integrated modelling of socio-ecological systems: Lessons on Good Modelling Practice from Five Case Studies. Journal of Environmental Modelling & Software, 127-145.

Ghosh, R., & Debbarma, R. (2019). Effect of slope angle variation on the structures resting on hilly region. International Journal of Advanced Structural Engineering, 67-77.

Gu, W., Guo, J., Fan, K., & Chan, E. H. (2016). Dynamic Land Use Change and Sustainable Urban Development in. Procedia Environmental Sciences, 98-105.

Heksano, S., Agustin, I. W., & Hasyim, A. W. (2014). The suitability of residential land based on the basic physical characteristics of the Batu City. Planning for Urban Region and Environment , 1-10.

Jat, M. K., Choudhary, M., & Saxena, A. (2017). Urban growth assessment and prediction using RS, GIS and SLEUTH model for a heterogeneous urban fringe. Egyptian Journal of Remote Sensing and Space Science, 274-286.

Khan, R., & Jhariya, D. C. (2016). Land Use Land Cover Change Detection Using Remote. SSARSC International Journal of Geo Science and Geo Informatics, 1-4.

MacDonald, R. (2005). How Women Were Affected by the Tsunami: A Perspective from Oxfam. PLos Med, 178-180.

Novia, N. D., Supriatna, & Anggrahita, H. (2019). Spatial Dynamics Model of Land Availability and Mount Merapi Disaster-Prone Areas in Sleman Regency, Yogyakarta Special Region Province. Padjadjaran Earth Dialogues, International Symposium on Geophysical Issues (pp. 1-6). Bandung: IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science.

Prăvălie, R., Patriche, C., Săvulescu, I., Sîrodoev, I., Bandoc, G., & Sfîcă, L. (2020). Spatial assessment of land sensitivity to degradation across Romania. A quantitative approach based on the modified MEDALUS methodology. CATENA, 114-130.

Statistics, C. B. (2018, August 1). Population Growth Rate Based on Province Per Year. Retrieved from Central Bureau of Statistics: https://www.bps.go.id/statictable/2009/02/20/1268/lajupertumbuhan-penduduk-menurut-provinsi.html

Supriatna, Supriatna, J., Koestoer, H. R., & Takarina, D. N. (2016). Spatial Dynamics Model for Sustainability Landscape in Cimandiri Estuary, West Java, Indonesia. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 19-30.

Testa, P. A. (2020). Shocks and the spatial distribution of economic activity: The role of institutions. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization.

Zhou, S., & Lin, R. (2019). Spatial-temporal heterogeneity of air pollution: The relationship between built environment and on-road PM2.5 at micro scale. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 305-322.



DOI: https://doi.org/10.22146/ijg.44591

Article Metrics

Abstract views : 4768 | views : 3948

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Bookmark and Share


Copyright (c) 2020 Della Ayu Lestari, Dewi Susiloningtyas, Supriatna Supriatna

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

Accredited Journal, Based on Decree of the Minister of Research, Technology and Higher Education, Republic of Indonesia Number 225/E/KPT/2022, Vol 54 No 1 the Year 2022 - Vol 58 No 2 the Year 2026 (accreditation certificate download)

ISSN 2354-9114 (online), ISSN 0024-9521 (print)

Web Analytics IJG STATISTIC